1514 
1201中国微观和全球宏观数据显示，老年人口的储蓄率论有所偏离，意味着老龄化会进一步导致消费萎缩。文章构建跨期决策模型发现，当总效用不变时，消费可以被闲暇替代，家庭决策存在“低消费、低劳动”和“高消费、高劳动”两种均衡。当对最低劳动施加约束时，老年人会从“双低”均衡转向“双高”均衡。经验证据支持了理论结论：（1）老年家庭的消费—闲暇替代弹性约为3，表明当相对价格变化1个百分点时，消费和闲暇的相对比例将变化约3个百分点。（2）当消费—闲暇替代弹性上升1时，储蓄率上升6.73个百分点。2016—2019年间，老年家庭这一弹性平均每年上升0.86，对应储蓄率每年上升5.80个百分点。（3）在考虑了预防性动机、长寿动机和遗赠动机等竞争性解释后，消费—闲暇替代仍可以解释老年人的高储蓄。总的来说，文章的理论意义在于从消费—闲暇替代关系中解释了老年人消费—劳动的“双低”均衡。基于此，文章认为，释放老年群体劳动潜力，实施延迟退休年龄政策，有利于从“双低”均衡转向“双高”均衡，实现消费和劳动供给双重稳定。
老年低消费的解决之道：从消费—劳动“双低”到“双高”均衡
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易祯, 朱超. 老年低消费的解决之道：从消费—劳动“双低”到“双高”均衡[J]. 财经研究, 2024, 50(2): 63-77.
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