月频动量效应作为海外资本市场最强劲的因子之一,被广泛用于资产配置;但动量效应在中国A股市场上却表现不佳,被称为中国股票市场上的“月频动量效应消失之谜”。文章从微观市场交易制度的角度出发对A股市场“月频动量消失之谜”给出了理论解释,基于2000−2016年A股上市公司数据,使用日内与隔夜收益率拆解的方法进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)A股市场存在日内动量、隔夜动量以及由T+1制度导致的日内与隔夜动量的强反转关系;而日内收益动量、隔夜收益动量的相反作用则抵消了总体收益的动量效应。(2)在将动量形成期收益率拆解为日内和隔夜两个部分后,在T+1制度下,高风险股票的隔夜收益率低,而低风险股票的隔夜收益率高,从而表现出日内隔夜之间的强反转效应。(3)当市场波动率较高(低)时,T+1约束更强(弱),日内与隔夜反转更强(弱),此时动量策略表现更差(好)。文章既有助于我们加深对动量效应成因及其背后的经济学机制的理解,也有助于政策制定者更加了解中国股票市场制度的潜在影响。
中国股票市场月频动量效应消失之谜——基于T+1制度下隔夜折价现象的研究
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参考文献
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引用本文
白颢睿, 吴辉航, 柯岩. 中国股票市场月频动量效应消失之谜——基于T+1制度下隔夜折价现象的研究[J]. 财经研究, 2020, 46(4): 140-154.
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