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2172改革开放以来，随着中国在国际贸易中的地位不断提升，个别霸权国家大肆宣扬“中国威胁论”，并公然挑起贸易争端，遏制中国发展。这都是建立在中国出口增长是外生供给冲击基础上的观点，均未从进口国国内经济角度深入剖析中国出口增长的原因。文章从家庭债务冲击引起总需求扩张的视角为中国的出口增长提供了一种新的解释，即进口国家庭债务扩张导致的总需求增加传导到国际贸易中，刺激了中国出口。文章首先构建了一个理论模型，阐述了家庭债务扩张向外贸的传导路径，然后利用1979—2018年的跨国信贷数据和中国出口数据，实证检验了进口国家庭债务扩张对中国出口的影响。实证结果验证了中国出口增长的一个重要原因是进口国家庭债务扩张驱动其国内消费需求增长，家庭债务每增加1个百分点会使得同期中国出口增长约0.428个百分点；并且这一结果在中国加入
家庭债务周期、总需求与中国出口
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宁磊, 王英. 家庭债务周期、总需求与中国出口[J]. 财经研究, 2023, 49(5): 154-168.
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