3477 
2288改革开放以来，随着中国在国际贸易中的地位不断提升，个别霸权国家大肆宣扬“中国威胁论”，并公然挑起贸易争端，遏制中国发展。这都是建立在中国出口增长是外生供给冲击基础上的观点，均未从进口国国内经济角度深入剖析中国出口增长的原因。文章从家庭债务冲击引起总需求扩张的视角为中国的出口增长提供了一种新的解释，即进口国家庭债务扩张导致的总需求增加传导到国际贸易中，刺激了中国出口。文章首先构建了一个理论模型，阐述了家庭债务扩张向外贸的传导路径，然后利用1979—2018年的跨国信贷数据和中国出口数据，实证检验了进口国家庭债务扩张对中国出口的影响。实证结果验证了中国出口增长的一个重要原因是进口国家庭债务扩张驱动其国内消费需求增长，家庭债务每增加1个百分点会使得同期中国出口增长约0.428个百分点；并且这一结果在中国加入
家庭债务周期、总需求与中国出口
摘要
参考文献
摘要
2 纪洋, 葛婷婷, 边文龙, 等. 杠杆增速、部门差异与金融危机−“结构性去杠杆”的实证分析与我国杠杆政策的讨论[J]. 经济学(季刊),2021,(3):843−862. DOI:10.13821/j.cnki.ceq.2021.03.05
10 王海成, 许和连, 邵小快. 国有企业改制是否会提升出口产品质量[J]. 世界经济,2019,(3):94−117. DOI:10.19985/j.cnki.cassjwe.2019.03.006
12 Asquith B, Goswami S, Neumark D, et al. U. S. job flows and the China shock[J]. Journal of International Economics,2019,118: 123−137. DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.02.002
13 Autor D, Dorn D, Hanson G H. When work disappears: Manufacturing decline and the falling marriage market value of young men[J]. American Economic Review:Insights,2019,1(2): 161−178. DOI:10.1257/aeri.20180010
16 Autor D H, Dorn D, Hanson G H. The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States[J]. American Economic Review,2013,103(6): 2121−2168. DOI:10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
17 Autor D H, Dorn D, Hanson G H, et al. Trade adjustment: Worker-level evidence[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2014,129(4): 1799−1860. DOI:10.1093/qje/qju026
18 Bernard A B, Fort T C, Smeets V, et al. Heterogeneous globalization: Offshoring and reorganization[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 26854, 2020.
19 Bhutta N, Keys B J. Interest rates and equity extraction during the housing boom[J]. American Economic Review,2016,106(7): 1742−1774. DOI:10.1257/aer.20140040
20 Kaplan G, Violante G L. A model of the consumption response to fiscal stimulus payments[J]. Econometrica,2014,82(4): 1199−1239. DOI:10.3982/ECTA10528
21 Mian A, Sufi A. House prices, home equity-based borrowing, and the US household leverage crisis[J]. American Economic Review,2011,101(5): 2132−2156. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.5.2132
22 Mian A, Sufi A. Household debt and defaults from 2000 to 2010: The credit supply view[A]. Fennell L A, Keys B J. Evidence and innovation in housing law and policy[C]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017, 257-288.
23 Mian A, Sufi A. Finance and business cycles: The credit-driven household demand channel[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2018,32(3): 31−58. DOI:10.1257/jep.32.3.31
24 Mian A, Sufi A, Verner E. Household debt and business cycles worldwide[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2017,132(4): 1755−1817. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjx017
26 Mian A, Straub L, Sufi A. Indebted demand[R]. NBER Working Paper No. 26940, 2020b.
27 Paz L S. The effect of import competition on Brazil’s manufacturing labor market in the 2000s: Are imports from China different?[J]. The International Trade Journal,2018,32(1): 76−99. DOI:10.1080/08853908.2017.1389323
28 Pierce J R, Schott P K. The surprisingly swift decline of US manufacturing employment[J]. American Economic Review,2016,106(7): 1632−1662. DOI:10.1257/aer.20131578
29 Zeldes S P. Consumption and liquidity constraints: An empirical investigation[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1989,97(2): 305−346. DOI:10.1086/261605
30 Zhu B, Li L X, Downs D H, et al. New evidence on housing wealth and consumption channels[J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2019,58(1): 51−79. DOI:10.1007/s11146-017-9638-8
引用本文
宁磊, 王英. 家庭债务周期、总需求与中国出口[J]. 财经研究, 2023, 49(5): 154-168.
导出参考文献，格式为：
