The Effects of Labor Supply Changes on Structural Optimization of Manufacturing Industry

Yang Ligao; Gong Shihao; Han Feng

doi:doi:10.16538/j.cnkij.fe.2017.02.009

Abstract

Under the background of population aging and the popularization of higher education, labor supply in China is undergoing profound changes, and will have a profound impact on structure optimization of manufacturing industry.Labor supply changes mainly include changes in multi-dimensions such as quantity, quality and structure, and structure optimization of manufacturing industry is chiefly manifested by structure upgrading and structure rationalization of manufacturing industry.Based on the sample of Chinese provincial panel data from 1992 to 2013 and from the comprehensive perspective of labor supply quantity, quality and structure, this paper discusses the effects of labor supply changes on structure optimization of manufacturing industry.It arrives at the results as follows:firstly, the growth of labor supply quantity is beneficial to the promotion of structure rationalization of manufacturing industry, but has no significant effect on structure upgrading of manufacturing industry; secondly, the rise in labor supply quality significantly improves the level of structure rationalization of manufacturing industry, but is not favorable to the development of structure upgrading of manufacturing industry; thirdly, the rise in the elder and children dependency ratios which embodies labor supply structure, significantly inhibits the development of structure rationalization and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and the inhibitory effect of the elderly dependency ratio is bigger than the one of the children dependency ratio.Furthermore, this paper carries out a robustness test through the replacement of the samples and the methods, and obtains the results which basically support the previous research conclusions.Therefore, we should adjust and optimize the population policy to reply to the negative shocks of population aging and the decline in labor supply quantity to structure optimization of manufacturing industry, also make efforts to train all kinds of talents who match the new requirements of industrial development, especially high-level innovative talents, and depend on innovation to drive structure optimization of manufacturing industry.