我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究——基于代际核算方法的模拟分析
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 12 期, 页码：6 - 17
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章利用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,基于符合国情的参数假设,分析了各种"新农保"方案对财政体系可持续性的影响。模拟结果表明,按照目前方案建立"新农保"体系并不会给政府增加太多负担,"新农保"覆盖面扩大的快慢对财政体系的负担基本也没有影响。由于个人账户中积累的资金目前按照一年期定期存款计息,政府承担的个人账户长寿风险非常有限。"新农保"体系带给政府的主要财政负担来自全额负担基础养老金,如果政府把全国的基础养老金都提高至上海市每月135元的水平,给政府增加的负担不会过多。因此,政府可以加快"新农保"覆盖面扩大的速度,并在现有的财力水平下把全国农村的基础养老金都提高至上海市的水平,但是提高幅度不宜进一步加大。
②数据来源:《中国统计年鉴2009》表4-22。
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[1]陈平.建立统一的社会保障体系是短视国策[J].中国改革,2002,(4):16-17.
[2]任若恩,蒋云赟,徐楠楠,林黎.中国代际核算体系的建立和对养老保险制度改革的研究[J].经济研究,2004,(9):118-128.
[3]蒋云赟.我国企业基本养老保险的代际平衡分析[J].世界经济文汇,2009a,(1):58-69.
[4]蒋云赟.增值税转型对财政体系代际平衡的影响[J].理论探索,2009b,(1):74-77.
[5]Modigliani F.Long-run implications of alternative fiscal policies and the burden of thenational debt[J].The Economic Journal,1961,71:730-755.
[6]Feldstein M S.Social security,induced retirement,and aggregate capital accumulation[J].Journal of Political Economy,1974,82(5):905-926.
[7]Eisner R,Pieper P J.A new view of the federal debt and budget deficits[J].AmericanEconomic Review,1984,74(1):11-29.
[8]Kotlikoff L J.The deficit is not a well-defined measure of fiscal policy[J].Science,1988,241:791-795.
[9]Auerbach A J,Gokhale J,Kotlikoff L J.Generational accounts:A meaningful alternativeto deficit accounting[A].Bradford D.Tax Policy and the Economy[C].Cambridge:MITPress,1991.
[10]Kotlikoff L J,Raffelhuschen B.Generational accounting around the Globe[J].Ameri-can Economic Review,1999,89(2):161-166.
[11]Auerbach A J,Gokhale J,Kotlikoff L J.Social security and medicaid policy from theperspective of generational accounting[A].Poterba J.Tax Policy and the Economy[C].Cambridge:MIT Press,1992.
[12]Agulnik P,Cardarelli R,Sefton J.The pension green paper:A generational accountingperspective[J].The Economic Journal,2000,110:598-610.
[13]Gál R I,Simonovits A,Tarcali G.Generational accounting and hungarian pension re-form[R].World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No 0127,2001.
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蒋云赟. 我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究——基于代际核算方法的模拟分析[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(12): 6–17.
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