基于行为金融学的房价预期对地价的动态作用机制研究
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财经研究 2013 年 第 39 卷第 07 期, 页码：135 - 145
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章借鉴行为金融学中的适应性预期理论和前景理论,在对开发商的土地竞买行为特征进行理论分析的基础上,建立了房价预期对地价作用的非对称动态关系模型,并用中国的数据进行了实证检验。主要研究结论:房地产开发商基于房价历史数据形成未来房价预期,并依据房价预期对土地价值进行判断。开发商的房价预期对地价的作用具有动态性和非对称性。开发商在"优于预期"时段更加倾向于风险规避,在"劣于预期"时段更加倾向于风险趋向。同时,在"优于预期"时段对土地价值评估的增加程度要高于在"劣于预期"时段对土地价值评估的降低程度。
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[6]Akerlof G A,Shiller R J.Animal spirits:How human psychology drives the economyand why it matters for global capitalism[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton UniversityPress,2009.
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[8]Case K E,Shiller R J.Is there a bubble in the housing market?[J].Brookings Papers onEconomic Activity,2003,(2):299-342.
[9]Gillen M,Fisher P.Residential developer behavior in land price determination[J].Jour-nal of property Research,2002,19(1):39-59.
[10]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
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[12]Peng R,Wheaton W C.Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong:An econometric analysis[J].Journal of Housing Research,1994,5(2):263-291.
[13]Shiller R J.Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership[R].NBER Working Paper No.13553,2007.
③数据来源于《中国物价》2004年第8期、第12期和2005年第3期的《全国及35个大中城市房地产价格变动情况》。
[2]刘洪玉,任荣荣.开发商的土地储备与竞买行为解析[J].中国土地科学,2008,22(12):11-16.
[3]刘禹麒,熊华,罗伟玲.论“招拍挂”对地价房价的影响[J].国土资源,2005,50(9):61-63.
[4]王松涛,刘洪玉.土地供应政策对住房供给与住房价格的影响研究[J].土木工程学报,2009,42(10):116-121.
[5]严金海.中国的房价与地价:理论、实证和政策分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(1):17-26.
[6]Akerlof G A,Shiller R J.Animal spirits:How human psychology drives the economyand why it matters for global capitalism[M].Princeton,NJ:Princeton UniversityPress,2009.
[7]Case K E,Shiller R J.The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets[J].New England Economic Review,1988,11:29-46.
[8]Case K E,Shiller R J.Is there a bubble in the housing market?[J].Brookings Papers onEconomic Activity,2003,(2):299-342.
[9]Gillen M,Fisher P.Residential developer behavior in land price determination[J].Jour-nal of property Research,2002,19(1):39-59.
[10]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
[11]Mayer C,Sinai T.U S house price dynamics and behavioral economics[A].Foote C L,Goette L,Meiers S.Policy making insights on behavioral economics[C].2009...
[12]Peng R,Wheaton W C.Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong:An econometric analysis[J].Journal of Housing Research,1994,5(2):263-291.
[13]Shiller R J.Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership[R].NBER Working Paper No.13553,2007.
③数据来源于《中国物价》2004年第8期、第12期和2005年第3期的《全国及35个大中城市房地产价格变动情况》。
引用本文
黄静, 王洪卫, 柯昇沛. 基于行为金融学的房价预期对地价的动态作用机制研究[J]. 财经研究, 2013, 39(7): 135–145.
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