Market Risk, Contractual Relationship and Spatial Spillovers of Farmers: Based on H7N9 Avian Influenza

Zhou Li, Liu Xinyue

Journal of Finance and Economics Vol. 42, Issue 02, pp. 121 - 131 (2016)  DOI:10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.2016.02.011

Abstract

Based on the first-hand two-round survey of 77 poultry farmers in Gaoyou, a county-level city, this paper uses spatial econometric models to empirically analyze the impact of "company+farmers" contractual relationship on the behavior of poultry farmers under the continued shocks of avian influenza risks. Then it discusses the spatial spillovers of poultry farmers from the perspective of uncertainty resulting from avian influenza risks. It shows that compared with independent poultry farmers, "company+farmers" contractual relationships have a significant positive impact on breeding scale. When market risks strengthen, the spatial spillovers between poultry farmers are more apparent. As the author knows, that this paper makes the first attempt to use farmers data to do the research of spatial effects of avian influenza, is a new attempt of new institutional economics, and the results have important policy implications for sustainable development of the Chinese poultry industry.

Keywords

avian influenza; contractual relationship; adaptive behavior; spatial spillover