在我国较密集的房地产调控背景之下,定量测算房地产抵押品价值变动对实体经济的影响幅度具有重要意义。文章采用前沿方法深入考察了房地产抵押品价值变动对公司投融资决策的影响,并在此基础上对房价调控政策对社会总投资的潜在影响进行了估算。研究发现:(1)我国存在显著的抵押品效应,公司房地产抵押品价值每上升1元,资本支出随之增加约5.7分;无论是控制公司固定效应,还是使用替代指标或子样本分析,抵押品效应均稳健成立。(2)宏观层面上,房地产抵押品价值1%的上升将引起总投资增加约466.3亿元。(3)对资金来源的探究显示,抵押品升值提高了公司的贷款获得,尤其是短期贷款的获得。(4)抵押品效应与公司的融资约束正相关,但与所在地区金融市场化水平无明显关系。基于研究结论,建议政府在进行调控时不宜对房价过度打压,而应引导房价保持与居民消费价格相当的增长速度,减少房价过度波动,维持房地产市场长期平稳健康发展。
房地产抵押品价值变动的实体经济效应
摘要
参考文献
1 陈彦斌, 邱哲圣.高房价如何影响居民储蓄率和财产不平等[J].经济研究, 2011, (10):25-38. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-5863.2011.10.012
7 Almeida H, Campello M, Weisbach M S. The cash flow sensitivity of cash[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2004, 59(4):1777-1804. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00679.x
8 Bernanke B, Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The financial accelerator and the flight to quality[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78(1):1-15. DOI:10.2307/2109844
9 Chaney T, Sraer D, Thesmar D. The collateral channel:How real estate shocks affect corporate investment[J]. The American Economic Review, 2012, 102(6):2381-2409. DOI:10.1257/aer.102.6.2381
10 Cvijanovic' D. Real estate prices and firm capital structure[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 2014, 27(9):2690-2735. DOI:10.1093/rfs/hhu035
11 Gan J. Collateral, debt capacity, and corporate investment:Evidence from a natural experiment[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2007, 85(3):709-734. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.06.007
12 Gomes J F. Financing investment[J]. The American Economic Review, 2001, 91(5):1263-1285. DOI:10.1257/aer.91.5.1263
13 Himmelberg C, Mayer C, Sinai T. Assessing high house prices:Bubbles, fundamentals and misperceptions[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2005, 19(4):67-92. DOI:10.1257/089533005775196769
14 Kiyotaki N, Moore J. Credit cycles[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105(2):211-248. DOI:10.1086/262072
15 Mian A, Sufi A. House prices, home equity-based borrowing, and the US household leverage crisis[J]. The American Economic Review, 2011, 101(5):2132-2156. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.5.2132
16 Nie J, Cao G. China's slowing housing market and GDP growth[J]. The Macro Bulletin, 2014:1-3.
17 Saiz A. The geographic determinants of housing supply[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2010, 125(3):1253-1296. DOI:10.1162/qjec.2010.125.3.1253
18 Wu J, Gyourko J, Deng Y H. Real estate collateral value and investment:The case of China[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2015, 86:43-53. DOI:10.1016/j.jue.2014.12.006
引用本文
钟腾. 房地产抵押品价值变动的实体经济效应[J]. 财经研究, 2017, 43(10): 55–66.
导出参考文献,格式为: