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140The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has profoundly reshaped the labor market and may further affect fertility intentions, which poses significant challenges to intergenerational renewal and sustainable development. Using data from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the impact of AI development on women’s fertility intentions. The study constructs regional-level indicators of AI development by combining the number of AI patents granted across industries with each industry’s regional employment share in the base period. To address potential omitted-variable bias and reverse causality in model estimation, we further construct instrumental variables based on the number of AI patents granted across industries in the United States.
The results show that AI development significantly reduces women’s ideal number of children. Mechanism testing shows that AI reduces women’s fertility intentions through four channels. Economically, it increases women’s employment and relative income, raising the opportunity cost of childbearing. In household decision-making, it lowers male spouses’ fertility preferences and transmits this effect to women through intra-household bargaining. In family relationships, it reduces family interactions and marital satisfaction, making women more cautious in their fertility decisions. In cultural norms and values, it reshapes women's fertility norms and gender-role perceptions, turning childbearing from a perceived obligation into a personal choice. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of AI is stronger among highly-educated women and for the intention to have two or more children. Further evidence indicates that greater spousal involvement in housework and better access to social childcare services mitigate the negative effect of AI on women’s fertility intentions.
This paper enriches the literature on the socioeconomic effects of AI and deepens the understanding of the determinants of fertility intentions. It also examines effective measures to enhance women’s fertility intentions under the impact of AI technology. The findings provide empirical evidence and policy implications for building a fertility-friendly society and formulating long-term policies to address demographic transformation in the era of rapid AI development.
