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5568随着经济的发展，人口预期寿命持续增加，社会养老压力逐步加大；年金作为养老保障的重要支柱，其需求也在不断增大。文章在一个包含信贷约束和年金市场的三期生命周期模型框架下，从理论上分析了预期寿命增加和年金市场发展对典型消费者人力资本投资、储蓄行为、退休决策和预期终生劳动供给的影响。研究发现，随着预期寿命的增加，消费者会增加人力资本投资水平，增加储蓄率，但是退休行为和预期终生劳动供给的变化不确定，取决于年金市场的完善程度和外生的市场利率水平。如果年金市场不完善程度较高或市场利率水平较低，预期寿命增加会引起退休提前。但是即使进入劳动力市场的时间推迟，退出劳动力市场的时间提前，由于生存概率增加，预期终生劳动供给的变化并不确定。文章还发现，当预期寿命保持不变时，随着年金市场的不断完善，消费者会提前退休。
预期寿命、年金市场与经济行为
摘要
参考文献
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引用本文
刘盼, 王欣雨. 预期寿命、年金市场与经济行为[J]. 财经研究, 2019, 45(2): 30-45.
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