157 
147在信息不对称条件下，传统税收征管模式使企业潜在信用风险得以延迟暴露。随着“以数治税”的推进，税收征管数字化通过强化信息透明度和数据穿透能力，以重塑企业信用风险在资本市场中的定价方式。本文以2021年12月启动的全面数字化电子发票试点（金税四期）作为制度冲击，基于2020年1月至2024年12月企业债券二级市场月度信用利差数据，采用双重差分方法检验税收征管数字化对信用风险显性化的影响。研究发现，“以数治税”显著推高了试点地区企业债券信用利差，表明企业既有信用风险在市场定价中加速显性化；该效应主要通过风险信号、风险兑现和风险联动三条机制实现，并在现金流状况较弱、内部控制水平较低以及避税动机和避税行为更为突出的企业中表现得更为显著。研究表明，税收征管数字化不仅提升了征管效能，也通过强化资本市场的风险识别功能，对金融稳定与治理现代化产生重要影响。
“以数治税”能否揭露企业信用风险？——来自债券市场的证据
摘要
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引用本文
王晨圣, 杨乐, 张悦. “以数治税”能否揭露企业信用风险？——来自债券市场的证据[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2026, 48(8): 39-58.
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