东亚消费风险分担的度量及潜在福利分析
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财经研究 2008 年 第 34 卷第 09 期, 页码：92 - 101
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章利用1970-2004年的相关数据,度量了东亚13个经济体的消费风险分担的程度以及东亚地区在实现完全风险分担后带来的潜在福利收益。实证结果表明:东亚区域资本市场在平滑GDP冲击方面的作用非常小,对区域借贷市场虽有一定的作用,但较为有限,这说明东亚的消费风险分担程度还相当低;相比OECD国家和欧盟国家,东亚各经济体风险分担的福利收益是比较高的。
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[8]Mendoza E.The terms of trade,the real exchange rate and economic fluctuations[J].International Economic Review,1995,36:101-137.
[9]Obstfeld M.International capital mobility in the 1990s[A].P B Kenen.Understandinginterdependence[C].Princeton University Press,Princeton,1995:201-261.
[10]Sφrenson B,O Yosha.International risk sharing and European monetary unification[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,45:211-238.
[11]Tesar L L,Werner I M.Home bias and high turnover[J].Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance,1995,14:467-492.
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[13]van Wincoop E.How big are potential welfare gains from international risk sharing?[J].Journal of International Economics,1999,47:109-135.
①这13个国家和地区是中国大陆、日本、韩国、中国香港和东盟中的文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南,由于数据缺乏,缅甸未包括在内。
②在计量分析中常用Hausman检验值来判定固定效应模型和随机效应模型谁更有效。由于篇幅所限,检验结果在文中省略。
③van Wincoop,1999,P116。
④由于篇幅所限,参数计算结果在文中省略。
⑤李明星:东亚经贸合作的机遇与挑战,东亚思想库网络,http://www.neat.org.cn/up-loadfiles/2008051410032612.doc。
[2]Asdrubali P,B Sφrenson,O Yosha.Channels of interstate risk sharing:United States1963-1990[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1996,11:1081-1110.
[3]Cole H L,Obstfeld M.Commodity trade and international risk sharing:How much dofinancial markets matter?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1991,28:3-24.
[4]Jeon Jongkyon,Oh Yonghyup,Yang Dooyong.Financial market integration in EastAsia:Regional or lobal?[R].AEP conference paper,2005.
[5]Kim Soyoung,Sunghyun H Kim,Yunjong Wang.Financial integration and consump-tion risk sharing in East Asia[R].KIEP WP 03-13,2003.
[6]Lucas R E.Models of business cycles[M].Blackwell,Oxford,1987.
[7]Mélitz J,F Zumer.Interregional and international risk sharing and lessons for EMU[J].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1999,51:149-188.
[8]Mendoza E.The terms of trade,the real exchange rate and economic fluctuations[J].International Economic Review,1995,36:101-137.
[9]Obstfeld M.International capital mobility in the 1990s[A].P B Kenen.Understandinginterdependence[C].Princeton University Press,Princeton,1995:201-261.
[10]Sφrenson B,O Yosha.International risk sharing and European monetary unification[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,45:211-238.
[11]Tesar L L,Werner I M.Home bias and high turnover[J].Journal of InternationalMoney and Finance,1995,14:467-492.
[12]van Wincoop E.Welfare gains from international risk sharing[J].Journal of MonetaryEconomics,1994,34:175-200.
[13]van Wincoop E.How big are potential welfare gains from international risk sharing?[J].Journal of International Economics,1999,47:109-135.
①这13个国家和地区是中国大陆、日本、韩国、中国香港和东盟中的文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南,由于数据缺乏,缅甸未包括在内。
②在计量分析中常用Hausman检验值来判定固定效应模型和随机效应模型谁更有效。由于篇幅所限,检验结果在文中省略。
③van Wincoop,1999,P116。
④由于篇幅所限,参数计算结果在文中省略。
⑤李明星:东亚经贸合作的机遇与挑战,东亚思想库网络,http://www.neat.org.cn/up-loadfiles/2008051410032612.doc。
引用本文
郑海青. 东亚消费风险分担的度量及潜在福利分析[J]. 财经研究, 2008, 34(9): 92–101.
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