外生冲击与房地产真实价格波动——对1998~2003年中国31省(市、区)的实证研究
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财经研究 2005 年 第 31 卷第 11 期, 页码：90 - 99
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章首先根据经济学模型界定了两个重要指标:自相关系数与收敛系数。认为不同的外生冲击对这两个系数有不同的影响,而它们决定了房地产真实价格波动形态的差异。在此基础上,文章利用1998~2003年中国31个省(市、区)的面板数据对中国房地产市场进行了实证研究,其结论是,在真实人均可支配收入和真实建筑成本较高、真实税后住宅抵押贷款利率较低的地区有较大的自相关系数和较小的收敛系数,从而房地产真实价格具有更大的波动性。为使房地产真实价格在均衡价格附近平稳运行,降低开发成本和提高消费者购买成本能收到较好的效果。
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[2]Capozza,Dennis R,Paul J Seguin.Expectations,efficiency,and euphoria in the housingmarket[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1996,26:369~386.
[3]Capozza,Hendershott,Mack,Mayer.Determinants of real house price dynamics[R].NBER Working Paper Series 9262,2002;http://www.nber.org/papers/w9262:5~10.
[4]Case,Karl E,Robert J Shiller.The behavior of home buyers in boom and postboommarkets[J].New England Economic Review,1988,11/12:29~46.
[5]Case,Karl E,Robert J Shiller.The efficiency of the market for single family homes[J].The American Economic Review,1989,79:125~137.
[6]Fama,Eugene,and Kenneth French.Permanent and temporary components of stockprices[J].Journal of Political Economy,1988,96:246~273.
[7]Mayer,Christopher and Tsur Somerville.Land use regulation and new construction[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2000,30:639~662.
[8]高波.全球化视野下的中国房地产市场:泡沫、调控与走向[J].改革,2005,(10):25~28.
引用本文
洪涛, 高波, 毛中根. 外生冲击与房地产真实价格波动——对1998~2003年中国31省(市、区)的实证研究[J]. 财经研究, 2005, 31(11): 90–99.
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