政府融资决策无效性理论及对中国的启示
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财经研究 2002 年 第 28 卷第 05 期, 页码：32 - 37
摘要
参考文献
摘要
围绕用国债替代税收的融资决策在刺激居民消费方面是否有效的问题 ,西方学者进行了大量的理论和实证研究 ,其结果充满了争议。本文对这些研究成果进行了全面综述 ,并对李嘉图等价定理在中国的有效性进行了分析。
①此处不考虑政府融资安排的不同对总产出水平的影响,因此,在总产出水平也就是收入水平不变而税收总量现值也不变的情况下,居民的终生财富水平不会变化。
②巴罗提出的三个假设条件是:(1)一代代的理性消费者通过财富的代际转移联系在一起,从而使消费者最优消费路径的决策与代表性个体的无限期界模型一致(这是在前面已经描述的);(2)资本市场是完全的;(3)税收是非扭曲性的(总量税)。事实上,在巴罗复兴李嘉图等价以后,支持和反对的声音,无论是理论或实证,都是围绕这三个假设展开的。
③这三个模型分别是默文·金模型(King,1984)、早志文夫模型(Hayashifumio,1985)和詹尼士模型(Jaynes,1978)。
[1]Barro,RobertJ..AreGovernmentBondsNetWealth?[J]JournalofPoliticalEconomy,November/December,1974,82,1095-1117.
[2]Barro,RobertJ ..TheRicardianApproachtoBudgetDeficits[J]JournalofEconomicPerspectives,Spring,1989,37-54.
[3]Bernheim,B Douglas,AndreiShleifer,andLawrenceH Summers.TheStrategicBequestMotive[J]JournalofPo liticalEconomy,December,1985,93,1045-1076.
[4]Campbell,J Y Mankiw,N G .TheResponseofConsumptiontoIncome:aCross-countryInvestigation[J]Eu ropeanEconomicReview,1991,35,723-767.
[5]Carroll,ChrisandLawrenceH Summers.WhyHavePrivateSavingsRatesintheUnitedStatesandCanadaDi verged[J]JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,249-279.
[6]Chan,LouisK C .UncertaintyandtheNeutralityofGovernmentFinancingPolicy[J]JournalofMonetaryEco nomics,May,1983,11,351-372.
[7]KatsunoriWatanabe,TakayukiWatanabeandTsutomuWatanabe.TaxPolicyandConsumerSpending:EvidencefromJapaneseFiscalExperiments[J]JournalofInternationalEconomics,2001,53261-281.
[8]Kotlikoff,LaurenceJ andLawrenceH Summers.TheRoleofIntergenerationalTransfersinAggregateCapitalAccumulation[J]JournalofPoliticalEconomy,February,1984,92,123-135.
[9]Mundell,RobertA .Money,Debt,andtheRateofInterest[A]MundellR A MonetaryTheory[C]PacificPal isades:Goodyear,1971.
[10]Poterba,JamesM andLawrenceH Summers.FiniteLifetimeandtheSavingsEffectsofBudgetDeficits[J].JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,369-391.
[11]Tobin,JamesandWillemBuiter.FiscalandMonetaryPolicies,CapitalFormation,andEconomicActivity[A].Furstenberg,GeorgeM ,editor.TheGovernmentandCapitalFormation[C]Cambridge:Ballinger,1980.
[12]ToshikiYotsuzukRicardianEquivalenceinthePresenceofCapitalMarketImperfections[J]JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,411-436.
[13]Wilcox,DavidSocialSecurityBenefits,ConsumptionExpenditure,andtheLifeCicleHypothesis[J]JournalofPo liticalEconomy,April,1989,97,288-304.
[14]余永定,李军中国居民消费函数的理论与验证[J]中国社会科学,2000,(1).
[15]王劲松收入代际转移动机理论述评[J]经济学动态,2002,(2).
②巴罗提出的三个假设条件是:(1)一代代的理性消费者通过财富的代际转移联系在一起,从而使消费者最优消费路径的决策与代表性个体的无限期界模型一致(这是在前面已经描述的);(2)资本市场是完全的;(3)税收是非扭曲性的(总量税)。事实上,在巴罗复兴李嘉图等价以后,支持和反对的声音,无论是理论或实证,都是围绕这三个假设展开的。
③这三个模型分别是默文·金模型(King,1984)、早志文夫模型(Hayashifumio,1985)和詹尼士模型(Jaynes,1978)。
[1]Barro,RobertJ..AreGovernmentBondsNetWealth?[J]JournalofPoliticalEconomy,November/December,1974,82,1095-1117.
[2]Barro,RobertJ ..TheRicardianApproachtoBudgetDeficits[J]JournalofEconomicPerspectives,Spring,1989,37-54.
[3]Bernheim,B Douglas,AndreiShleifer,andLawrenceH Summers.TheStrategicBequestMotive[J]JournalofPo liticalEconomy,December,1985,93,1045-1076.
[4]Campbell,J Y Mankiw,N G .TheResponseofConsumptiontoIncome:aCross-countryInvestigation[J]Eu ropeanEconomicReview,1991,35,723-767.
[5]Carroll,ChrisandLawrenceH Summers.WhyHavePrivateSavingsRatesintheUnitedStatesandCanadaDi verged[J]JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,249-279.
[6]Chan,LouisK C .UncertaintyandtheNeutralityofGovernmentFinancingPolicy[J]JournalofMonetaryEco nomics,May,1983,11,351-372.
[7]KatsunoriWatanabe,TakayukiWatanabeandTsutomuWatanabe.TaxPolicyandConsumerSpending:EvidencefromJapaneseFiscalExperiments[J]JournalofInternationalEconomics,2001,53261-281.
[8]Kotlikoff,LaurenceJ andLawrenceH Summers.TheRoleofIntergenerationalTransfersinAggregateCapitalAccumulation[J]JournalofPoliticalEconomy,February,1984,92,123-135.
[9]Mundell,RobertA .Money,Debt,andtheRateofInterest[A]MundellR A MonetaryTheory[C]PacificPal isades:Goodyear,1971.
[10]Poterba,JamesM andLawrenceH Summers.FiniteLifetimeandtheSavingsEffectsofBudgetDeficits[J].JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,369-391.
[11]Tobin,JamesandWillemBuiter.FiscalandMonetaryPolicies,CapitalFormation,andEconomicActivity[A].Furstenberg,GeorgeM ,editor.TheGovernmentandCapitalFormation[C]Cambridge:Ballinger,1980.
[12]ToshikiYotsuzukRicardianEquivalenceinthePresenceofCapitalMarketImperfections[J]JournalofMonetaryEconomics,September,1987,20,411-436.
[13]Wilcox,DavidSocialSecurityBenefits,ConsumptionExpenditure,andtheLifeCicleHypothesis[J]JournalofPo liticalEconomy,April,1989,97,288-304.
[14]余永定,李军中国居民消费函数的理论与验证[J]中国社会科学,2000,(1).
[15]王劲松收入代际转移动机理论述评[J]经济学动态,2002,(2).
引用本文
王劲松. 政府融资决策无效性理论及对中国的启示[J]. 财经研究, 2002, 28(5): 32–37.
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