国家经济风险与FDI——基于中国的经验研究
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 10 期, 页码：71 - 81
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章在国家风险理论的基础上提出了国家经济风险概念,强调了从宏观经济和金融风险综合角度研究FDI的重要性。文章利用中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)统计数据建立计量经济学模型,检验和分析了国家经济风险与OFDI之间的长期均衡关系。研究发现:国家经济风险的确对OFDI产生了显著负向影响,而控制变量中的经济增长和政府政策变量对OFDI的影响是正向的,实际利率、汇率和出口依存度对OFDI的影响是负向的。据此,文章提出要通过加强对国家经济风险的评估预警系统建设、建立健全双边和多边投资保护体系等来化解国家经济风险的不利影响。
①数据来源:UNCTAD,World investment report 2010,Annex Table 2,p4.
②数据来源:商务部,《2009年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》,第4页。
③数据来源:UNCTAD,World investment report 2011,p190-192.
④数据来源:德勤官网,《崛起的曙光:中国海外并购新篇章》,2010年10月。
⑤美国政治风险服务集团(The PRS Group)早在1980年就推出了国家风险指南模型(ICRG),该模型将国家风险指标分为政治风险(50%)、经济风险(25%)和金融风险(25%)三大类,各类指数每月定期向全球发布。详见http://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG.aspx。
[1]Usher D.Political risk,economic development and cultural change[M].The University of Chicago Press,1965:453-462.
[2]Robock S.Political risk:Identification and assessment[J].Columbia Journal of World Business,1971,6(4):6-20.
[3]Kobrin S J.Political risk:A review and reconsideration[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1979,10:67-80.
[4]Yothin,Jinjarak.Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk[J].Journal of Com-parative Economics,2007,35:509-519.
[5]Ghosh B N,Li E A L.Macroeconomic vulnerability and investment risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region[J].International Economics,2009,62(1):1-39.
[6]Henisz W.The institutional environment for multinational investment[J].Journal of Law,Economics and Organization,2002,16:334-364.
[7]Egger P,Winner H.Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2005,21:932-952.
[8]Lilia M,Serguei M,Fidel P.Sovereign risk,FDI spillovers,and growth[J].Review of International Economics,2008,16(3):463-477.
[9]Nabamita D,Sanjukta R.Foreign direct investment,financial development and politi-cal risks[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,2011,44(2):303-307.
[10]Wang C,Hong J,Mario K.Antecedents of outward FDI in emerging economics:The role of government involvement[R].上海:上海对外贸易学院,2010.
[11]Kevin L.Risk,FDI and economic growth:A dynamic panel data analysis of the deter-minants of FDI and its growth impact in Africa[D].Washington,D C:American Uni-versity,2005.
②数据来源:商务部,《2009年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》,第4页。
③数据来源:UNCTAD,World investment report 2011,p190-192.
④数据来源:德勤官网,《崛起的曙光:中国海外并购新篇章》,2010年10月。
⑤美国政治风险服务集团(The PRS Group)早在1980年就推出了国家风险指南模型(ICRG),该模型将国家风险指标分为政治风险(50%)、经济风险(25%)和金融风险(25%)三大类,各类指数每月定期向全球发布。详见http://www.prsgroup.com/ICRG.aspx。
[1]Usher D.Political risk,economic development and cultural change[M].The University of Chicago Press,1965:453-462.
[2]Robock S.Political risk:Identification and assessment[J].Columbia Journal of World Business,1971,6(4):6-20.
[3]Kobrin S J.Political risk:A review and reconsideration[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1979,10:67-80.
[4]Yothin,Jinjarak.Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk[J].Journal of Com-parative Economics,2007,35:509-519.
[5]Ghosh B N,Li E A L.Macroeconomic vulnerability and investment risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region[J].International Economics,2009,62(1):1-39.
[6]Henisz W.The institutional environment for multinational investment[J].Journal of Law,Economics and Organization,2002,16:334-364.
[7]Egger P,Winner H.Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment[J].European Journal of Political Economy,2005,21:932-952.
[8]Lilia M,Serguei M,Fidel P.Sovereign risk,FDI spillovers,and growth[J].Review of International Economics,2008,16(3):463-477.
[9]Nabamita D,Sanjukta R.Foreign direct investment,financial development and politi-cal risks[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,2011,44(2):303-307.
[10]Wang C,Hong J,Mario K.Antecedents of outward FDI in emerging economics:The role of government involvement[R].上海:上海对外贸易学院,2010.
[11]Kevin L.Risk,FDI and economic growth:A dynamic panel data analysis of the deter-minants of FDI and its growth impact in Africa[D].Washington,D C:American Uni-versity,2005.
引用本文
王海军, 齐兰. 国家经济风险与FDI——基于中国的经验研究[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(10): 71–81.
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