我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析
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财经研究 2011 年 第 37 卷第 08 期, 页码：136 - 145
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章基于我国1997-2009年省级面板数据,采用数据本身隐含信息进行内分组的面板平滑转移模型来检验财政支出与经济增长之间的非线性效应,并进一步拓展了Armey曲线推论。研究发现,我国省级政府财政一般预算支出规模和财政支出结构均与经济增长之间存在Armey曲线所描绘的非线性效应,其中财政一般预算支出最优规模为9.32%,财政支出最优结构为1.643,并且财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构都在最优值两侧对经济增长的影响具有不对称性,相比而言,财政一般预算支出规模的转换速度似乎更快。这意味着现阶段我国财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构不合理,需要政府提高财政支出效率。
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[3]杨友才,赖敏晖.我国政府最优财政支出规模——基于门槛回归的分析[J].经济科学,2009,(2):34-44.
[4]Chen S,Lee C.Government size and economic growth in Taiwan:A threshold regres-sion approach[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2005,27:1051-1066.
[5]González A,Tera svirta T,Dijk D V.Panel smooth transition regression model and anapplication to investment under credit constraints[R].Working Paper,Stockholm Schoolof Economics,2004.
[6]González A,Terasvirta T,Dijk D V.Panel smooth transition regression models[R].SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604,2005.
[7]Armey R.The freedom revolution[M].Washington,D C:Rognery Publishing Co,1995.
[8]Barro R.Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth[J].Journal ofPolitical Economy,1990,98(5):103-125.
[9]Ram R.Government size and economic growth:A new framework and some evidencefrom cross-section and time-series data[J].American Economic Review,1986,76(1):191-203.
引用本文
张淑翠. 我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析[J]. 财经研究, 2011, 37(8): 136–145.
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