三元悖论政策配置与政策取向的经济效应——基于经济增长和金融稳定视角的分析
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财经研究 2013 年 第 39 卷第 11 期, 页码：135 - 145
摘要
参考文献
摘要
文章基于29个新兴市场国家(地区)的数据,研究了三元悖论配置与政策取向对宏观经济增长、金融稳定以及金融危机的作用。研究结果表明,无论三元悖论配置如何,汇率稳定性与金融开放性均对新兴市场国家的宏观经济增长、金融稳定发挥正向作用,而货币政策独立性则不利于金融稳定。汇率稳定性和货币政策独立性的实际政策取向仅促进了宏观经济增长,汇率稳定性与金融开放性的政策取向对宏观经济增长和金融稳定均有正向意义,而货币政策独立性与金融开放性的政策取向却不利于经济增长和金融稳定。
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①21个发达国家分别为:英国、奥地利、比利时、冰岛、丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰、挪威、瑞典、瑞士、加拿大、日本、芬兰、希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、澳大利亚和新西兰。16个其他发展中国家分别为:阿尔及利亚、保加利亚、科特迪瓦、克罗地亚、爱沙尼亚、约旦、拉脱维亚、黎巴嫩、立陶宛、尼日利亚、沙特、突尼斯、乌拉圭、乌克兰、委内瑞拉和越南。
②当Yit表示金融危机时,则退化为虚拟变量。
[2]Aizenman J,Chinn M D,Ito H.Assessing the emerging global financial architecture:Measuring the trilemma’s configurations over time[R].NBER Working Paper,No.14533,2008.
[3]Aizenman J,Chinn M D,Ito H.The emerging global financial architecture:Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2010,29(4):615-641.
[4]Aizenman J,Chinn M D,Ito H.Surfing the waves of globalization:Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2011,25(3):290-320.
[5]Bird G,Mandilaras A,Popper H.Is there a Beijing consensus on international macroeconomic policy?[J].World Development,2012,40(10):1933-1943.
[6]Claessens S,Kose M A,Terrones M E.How do business and financial cycles interact?[R].IMF Working Paper,No.88,2011.
[7]Galati G,Moessner R.Macroprudential policy—A literature review[R].DNB Working Paper No.267,2010.
[8]Laeven L,Valencia F.Systemic banking crises database:An update[R].IMF Working Paper,No.163,2012.
[9]Obstfeld M,Shambaugh J C,Taylor A M.The trilemma in history:Tradeoffs among exchange rates,monetary policies,and capital mobility[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(3):423-438.
[10]Obstfeld M,Shambaugh J C,Taylor A M.Financial stability,the trilemma,and international reserves[J].American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,2010,2(2):57-94.
[11]Popper H,Mandilaras A,Bird G.Trilemma stability and international macroeconomic archetypes[R].Manuscript,Santa Clara University,2011.
[12]Shambaugh J C.The Effects of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(1):301-352.
①21个发达国家分别为:英国、奥地利、比利时、冰岛、丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰、挪威、瑞典、瑞士、加拿大、日本、芬兰、希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、澳大利亚和新西兰。16个其他发展中国家分别为:阿尔及利亚、保加利亚、科特迪瓦、克罗地亚、爱沙尼亚、约旦、拉脱维亚、黎巴嫩、立陶宛、尼日利亚、沙特、突尼斯、乌拉圭、乌克兰、委内瑞拉和越南。
②当Yit表示金融危机时,则退化为虚拟变量。
引用本文
周兵, 靳玉英, 万超. 三元悖论政策配置与政策取向的经济效应——基于经济增长和金融稳定视角的分析[J]. 财经研究, 2013, 39(11): 135–145.
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