Does the Rapid Growth of Real Estate Investment Hinder the Construction of a Strong Trading Country? Experimental Judgment from China’s High-end Manufacturing Export Data

Wang Shiyong; Dong Minkai; Wang Hongwei

doi:doi:10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2020.05.001

Summary

The article uses the regional data of China’s high-end manufacturing exports and real estate investment as a sample to systematically study the impact of the rapid growth of real estate investment on the construction of a strong trading country, and focuses on the heterogeneous characteristics and mechanism paths. The study finds that high-speed growth in real estate investment may challenge the quality and upgrading of manufacturing exports by changing the innovation capital input, production costs, and profitability of the physical sector, resulting in insufficient manufacturing export competitiveness and hindering the establishment of a strong trading country. The study draws the following conclusions: （1） The rapid growth of real estate investment is not conducive to the construction of a strong trading country, that is, the growth rate of real estate investment increases by 1%, the technical complexity of manufacturing exports decreases by 0.068%, and the volume scale decreases by 0.019%. （2） The analysis of heterogeneity finds that the high-speed growth of real estate investment hinders manufacturing exports in the eastern developed regions mainly at the level of export technology complexity; while for the underdeveloped regions in the central and western regions, it is manifested at the level of quantity and scale. （3） The analysis of the intermediary effect shows that the rapid expansion of real estate investment not only squeezes out social innovation capital, but also drives factor input in the physical sector. Rising costs have reduced the export yield of enterprises. Of course, the article strictly guarantees the scientific validity of the above conclusions through endogeneity treatment and robustness test. Based on this, combined with the current epidemic impact, Sino-US friction and other practical challenges, the article gives suggestions from the following aspects: continue to optimize the long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, support the relief of the entity sector, implement the vision of a strong trading country, and promote the domestic and international dual cycle.