关系型交易会影响分析师的信息传递效率,进而对企业的信息环境产生影响。文章基于腐败官员落马这一准自然实验对上述假说进行了检验。文章以2005−2011年与24位省部级以上落马高官有关联的企业为样本,研究了政商关系的外生变化对分析师行为和企业信息环境的影响。文章基于双重差分模型,发现腐败官员落马后,与之关联企业的分析师预测准确性提高,预测分歧度降低,分析师跟踪数量增加,企业股价同步性降低。进一步检验发现,在官员落马影响关联企业股价同步性的过程中,分析师发挥了中介作用。可见,反腐能够降低分析师获取信息的门槛,提高分析师传递信息的效率,进而改善企业信息环境。
政商关系、分析师预测与股价同步性——基于腐败官员落马的准自然实验
摘要
参考文献
3 樊纲, 王小鲁, 朱恒鹏. 中国市场化指数: 各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告[M]. 经济科学出版社, 2011.
18 Amihud Y. Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects[J]. Journal of Financial Markets, 2002, 5(1): 31—56. DOI:10.1016/S1386-4181(01)00024-6
19 Bhattacharya U, Daouk H, Welker M. The world price of earnings opacity[J]. The Accounting Review, 2003, 78(3): 641—678. DOI:10.2308/accr.2003.78.3.641
20 Cao Y, Guan F, Li Z, et al. More than skin-deep? Beauty and the performance of sell-side financial analysts[R]. Working Paper, 2018.
22 Chen C J P, Ding Y, Kim C. High-level politically connected firms, corruption, and analyst forecast accuracy around the world[J]. Journal of International Business Studies, 2010, 41(9): 1505—1524. DOI:10.1057/jibs.2010.27
23 Chen S P, Matsumoto D A. Favorable versus unfavorable recommendations: The impact on analyst access to management-provided information[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2006, 44(4): 657—689. DOI:10.1111/joar.2006.44.issue-4
24 Claessens S, Feijen E, Laeven L. Political connections and preferential access to finance: The role of campaign contributions[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2008, 88(3): 554—580. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.11.003
25 Clement M B. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? [J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 1999, 27(3): 285—303. DOI:10.1016/S0165-4101(99)00013-0
26 Cohen L, Frazzini A, Malloy C. Sell-side school ties[J]. The Journal of Finance, 2010, 65(4): 1409—1437. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01574.x
27 Faccio M. Politically connected firms[J]. The American Economic Review, 2006, 96(1): 369—386. DOI:10.1257/000282806776157704
28 Fan J P H, Wong T J, Zhang T. Politically connected CEOs, corporate governance, and post-IPO performance of China’s newly partially privatized firms[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2007, 84(2): 330—357. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.03.008
29 Fan J P H, Rui O M, Zhao M. Public governance and corporate finance: Evidence from corruption cases[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2008, 36(3): 343—364. DOI:10.1016/j.jce.2008.05.001
31 Gul F A, Kim J B, Qiu A A. Ownership concentration, foreign shareholding, audit quality, and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2010, 95(3): 425—442. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.11.005
32 Harris M, Raviv A. Differences of opinion make a horse race[J]. The Review of Financial Studies, 1993, 6(3): 473—506. DOI:10.1093/rfs/5.3.473
33 Healy P M, Hutton A P, Palepu K G. Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research, 1999, 16(3): 485—520. DOI:10.1111/care.1999.16.issue-3
34 Hope O K. Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analysts’ forecast accuracy: An international study[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2003, 41(2): 235—272. DOI:10.1111/1475-679X.00102
35 Jin L, Myers S C. R2 around the world: New theory and new tests[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006, 79(2): 257—292. DOI:10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.11.003
36 Kandel E, Pearson N D. Differential interpretation of public signals and trade in speculative markets[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103(4): 831—872. DOI:10.1086/262005
39 Mayew W J. Evidence of management discrimination among analysts during earnings conference calls[J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 2008, 46(3): 627—659. DOI:10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00285.x
41 Petersen M A. Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches[J]. Review of Financial Studies, 2009, 22(1): 435—480. DOI:10.1093/rfs/hhn053
42 Piotroski J D, Roulstone D T. The influence of analysts, institutional investors, and insiders on the incorporation of market, industry, and firm-specific information into stock prices[J]. The Accounting Review, 2004, 79(4): 1119—1151. DOI:10.2308/accr.2004.79.4.1119
引用本文
官峰, 王俊杰, 章贵桥. 政商关系、分析师预测与股价同步性——基于腐败官员落马的准自然实验[J]. 财经研究, 2018, 44(7): 114-125.
导出参考文献,格式为:
下一篇:公开信息、投资期限与股价高估