从现收现付制转轨为基金积累制的收益研究——隐性债务下世代交叠一般均衡模型的理论分析及模拟
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财经研究 2010 年 第 36 卷第 08 期, 页码：112 - 122
摘要
参考文献
摘要
随着人口老龄化的加剧,现收现付制养老保险制度的各种弊端逐渐暴露。越来越多的人倾向于从现收现付制转换成基金积累制。文章在考虑转轨带来的养老金隐性债务的前提下,运用世代交叠模型来检验转轨后的收益。从理论上分析,在不影响代际分配的前提下,由现收现付制转型为基金积累制并不能产生任何收益,两个养老保险制度是等价的。在实证上通过Matlab软件模拟,结果显示在允许代际再分配的前提下,转轨会造成前面几代人消费水平的下降,之后每一代人的消费水平都会上升。加总各代人因转轨带来的收益和损失的贴现值,收益大于损失。因此,在允许代际再分配的条件下,转轨有利于整个社会收益的提高。
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引用本文
李时宇. 从现收现付制转轨为基金积累制的收益研究——隐性债务下世代交叠一般均衡模型的理论分析及模拟[J]. 财经研究, 2010, 36(8): 112–122.
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